Economists expect Friday’s update to confirm a cooling US jobs market after July’s weak hiring and downward revisions. The release lands amid fierce political scrutiny. President Donald Trump accused the Bureau of Labor Statistics of “rigged” numbers. He also fired Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after last month’s report, according to the source article. Nationwide’s Kathy Bostjancic told AFP that revisions reflect late survey responses. She added: “I’ve never viewed the data as being politically determined.”
Hiring Slows as Costs and Tariffs Bite
Corporate leaders continue to curb hiring as they wrestle with softer demand, higher costs and interest rates. EY’s Gregory Daco wrote that businesses are restraining headcount, with job creation increasingly concentrated in a few private-sector industries. He warned that stricter immigration rules could push labour force participation lower in coming months. The cooling US jobs market, he said, shows both demand and supply have softened while layoffs remain limited.
Forecasts Point to Softer Gains
A Briefing.com consensus points to 78,000 jobs added in August, up slightly from July’s 73,000. The unemployment rate is seen edging higher to 4.3% from 4.2%. For context, KPMG’s Kenneth Kim told AFP that monthly gains averaged 168,000 last year. In comparison, it is 85,000 so far this year—about half the 2024 pace. Uncertainty around Trump’s stop-start tariff rollouts has snarled supply chains. This has forced many firms to pause growth plans and hiring.
Fed Watchers Eye September Cut
If the data confirm a cooling US jobs market, Kim sees a “very high probability” the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its 16–17 September meeting. The Fed has held the policy rate at 4.25%–4.50% since December. They aim to balance inflation risks with a softening labour backdrop. Economists warn broad import tariffs could stoke prices and slow growth, a mix that keeps policymakers cautious. However, a tepid report would strengthen the case for support.
